There is only one team in the Premier League with a worse home record than Everton, which suggests that the Villans are overpriced (15/8 Blue Square) to win at Goodison Park on Sunday. However, closer inspection reveals that the Toffees are actually four games unbeaten on home soil (albeit three draws and a win), so does that make them a decent wager at 5/6 (Paddy Power) on the ‘Draw No Bet’ market instead?
Throw into the equation the fact that Aston Villa haven’t drawn on their travels this term and you’re left with something of a conundrum. Martin O’Neill’s men demonstrated their prowess on the road by recently winning 2-0 at Arsenal, although they lost by the same scoreline at Newcastle a fortnight earlier. Nevertheless, four away wins illustrates that the fifth-placed side have the players to cause maximum damage on the break, plus they haven’t lost to Everton on the past four occasions that the two sides have met.
This game could be a low-scoring affair, especially with the Toffees defence starting to tighten up. Just 7/10 (Blue Square) is available on Under 2.5 Goals, with this being the case in six of the past seven Everton matches. One would usually associate Aston Villa with high-scoring matches, although the Midlands side have endured two consecutive goalless draws, and its 17/2 (Sportingbet) that there is No Goalscorer for this televised match.
David Moyes’ men come into this game off the back of an excellent 1-0 win at Tottenham, and Ladbrokes offer 7/1 that they win by the same scoreline. Perhaps Villa are finally starting to realise that they need clean sheets to challenge for the Champions League places, with Sportingbet going 7/1 that they win by a solitary goal in this game. If I had to choose one player from either side to break the deadlock, it would be Tim Cahill (15/2 Boylesports) for the Toffees and Gareth Barry (14/1 Paddy Power) for the visitors.