Watch and bet on England's Euro 2012 qualifer live at bet365
England need just one point against Montenegro tonight to ensure that they qualify for Euro 2012.
England coach Fabio Capello has claimed that his players will travel to Podgorica with the aim of beating their hosts but the situation of Group G has to be taken into consideration.
Montenegro need to take just two points from their two home matches with England and Switzerland to qualify for the playoffs, which would be the biggest achievement in the young nation's footballing history. The Brave Falcons will, therefore, be highly motivated to avoid defeat against England on Friday.
Branko Brnovic's side managed to do that against the Three Lions at Wembley and it is somewhat bizarre to see England priced at just 4/6, by
bet365, to win in the Podgorica City Stadium. The bookmakers are, understandably, cautious about offering big prices on the visitors, particularly with Wayne Rooney, who is 7/2 to open the scoring, and Ashley Young (15/2) in such good form for Manchester United at the moment.
Montenegro cannot, however, be under-estimated. Strikers Mirko Vucinic (15/2), of Juventus, and Stevan Jovetic (10/1), who is currently at Fiorentina but attracting attention from Chelsea, are two world class players and they will give Gary Cahill and John Terry problems on Friday. The England defence has frequently looked vulnerable and it wouldn't be a shock if they conceded a goal in Podgorica.
That would leave the visitors needing to score twice in order to win and that may be being ambitious. Capello is a notoriously cautious manager and if England go ahead he is unlikely to ask them to push on and score a second. This could lead to the Three Lions defending too deep and Montenegro, who will be desperate to claim the point they need, will throw everything at the English defence.
Similarly, should Montenegro go ahead then England will push forward and the hosts will likely fall back, happy to try and protect their lead. Everything points to a draw on Friday evening and odds of 5/2 don't accurately reflect the chances of the two teams finishing level. It may be nervous at nervous and may not be pretty but both teams should get the result that they need.
Recommendation
Win Market - Draw (5/2,
bet365)