The National Hunt Chase over 4m (Wednesday 16th, 1.30) is not a race to follow the money blindly as there have been only six successful favourites since the race's inception in 1973 and a host of big-priced winners.
2010 Result: Poker De Sivola, trained by Ferdy Murphy and ridden by Ms K Walsh, 14/1 SP
Key Stats:
This has been a graveyard for market leaders with no outright winning favourite in the last 14 years, while four of the past eight winners started at 25/1 or bigger. Clearly, you shouldn't let the price put you off if you fancy an outsider.
Still, it's important that your fancy is entering the race on the back of a decent effort as only two of the last 27 winners failed to finish in the first four last time and, indeed, eight of the last 10 finished first or second on either or both of their last two starts.
Irish trainers have a so-so record (three winners in 14 years), which should be better given that many of them target this event. Irish owner JP McManus, on the other hand, has enjoyed considerable success with four winners, and his trainer Jonjo O'Neil has done even better with five wins, four of them coming since 2002.
Major Players:
The Irish appear to have a strong hand with Alpha Beat (6/1 bet365) and Chicago Grey (13/2 Ladbrokes) heading the market. The former has won his last five starts but has a long absence to overcome, having not raced since September. He's clearly been laid out for this. Chicago Grey already has useful course form, having chased home Time For Rupert here in December, and he might well have beaten Wayward Prince at this track in November, but for crashing out at the penultimate fence.
The Willie Mullins-trained Some Target (10/1 Ladbrokes) gives the Irish another string to their bow and he's a similar type to Hedgehunter; the stable's last winner in 2003. Certainly, he looks to be all about stamina having won over 3m4f at Punchestown last time out and, as that was only his fourth run over fences, there is considerable scope for improvement.
Tim Vaughan's Beshabar (12/1 William Hill) is the best of the home team, at least according to the betting, and he's been shaping as if he will appreciate this marathon trip.
Lively Outsiders:
Aberdale (16/1 bet365) has to be seriously considered given his trainer Jonjo O'Neil's record and his form is progressive, culminating with a win at Wetherby (jumped well) last time out. David Pipe's Sona Sasta (20/1 William Hill) has to be respected having won his last two starts, looking an out-and-out stayer in the process. The same comment applies to theCannington Brook (25/1 Victor Chandler), who is yet to get his head in front in four starts over fences but has been running well and was good enough to finish third in a Grade 1 Hurdle at Aintree last season.
Betting Sweeteners:
Some of the best amateurs in the land will be riding in this race but you can still expect plenty of fallers and Victor Chandler's 'Free Fall' offer is a nice insurance to have on your side. If your selection hits the deck, the firm will refund your losing stake as a free bet on the following day's racing - applies to all 27 races at the Festival.
Betting Advice:
There have been plenty of shock winners and I fancy another one this time round in the shape of CANNINGTON BROOK(25/1 Victor Chandler). An excellent third in the Sefton Novices' Hurdle last season, he has taken well to chasing this season, finishing third on his debut here in November, and runner-up on his last two starts. In between, he wasn't disgraced in the race won by Time For Rupert here in December and should really come into his own now he tackles a marathon trip. Good ground is expected to suit him best so I'm encouraged by the fact the taps were turned on this week.