Serbia will be out for revenge against Italy after being docked points for crowd trouble the last time the two nations met.
Serbia's trip to Italy almost exactly a year ago ended in disaster. The match in the Stadio Luigi Ferraris was abandoned after just six minutes by referee Craig Thomson due to crowd trouble. The hosts were awarded a 3-0 win by FIFA, which put a major dent in Serbia's attempts to qualify for Euro 2012.
Vladimir Petrovic's side have the chance to let their football do the talking on Friday, when they host Italy in the Stadion Crvena Zvedza. Unfortunately for the home side they can no longer qualify automatically for next summer's tournament in Poland and Ukraine but a victory over the visitors would ensure that they make it to the playoffs.
It is 5/4 at
bet365 that Serbia do win on Friday and they may well be a good bet at that price. The Italians have already qualified from Group C and, as such, are unlikely to field their strongest possible side, with manager Cesare Prandelli expected to experiment with his starting line-up.
This will, of course, mean that players such as Mario Balotelli, who is 8/1 to open the scoring, and Sebastian Giovinco (14/1) will be given an opportunity and these are certainly good reserves to be able to call upon but the team will, as a result, lack cohesion.
Serbia, by contrast, will be more motivated for Friday's match than they have been for possibly an in their history and a packed Stadion Crvena Zvedza will be 100% behind the team, creating a daunting atmosphere for the visitors. It is 11/5 that the visitors crush the home support by winning in Belgrade, or 9/4 that they dent Serbia's playoff hopes with a draw but, under the circumstances, a home win looks likely.
Recommendation
Win Market - Serbia (5/4,
bet365)